Like Mark Carney in Canada, the German chancellor could turn current difficulties into a political advantage, writes John Kampfner
Friedrich Merz’s speech in Munich a few weeks ago was bold. Not as groundbreaking as Mark Carney’s seminal “moment of rupture” keynote address in Davos, but it certainly positioned the German chancellor as a European leader ready to face up to these hardened times.
He declared that the world had entered a new era built on brute force, and that it was “not a cosy place.” His message: The world order is over, European complacency is over, but at the same time, Europe would not apologise for its values.
Can Merz now use this moment of extreme external threats against Europe, including from a major NATO ally (i.e the United States) to defeat populism at home and find the sort of political legitimacy and success that Canada’s Liberals regained under Carney’s leadership – with considerable unintentional help from Donald Trump?
Of all the areas of increasing tension and unpredictability on both sides of the Atlantic, none has been greater than Trump’s decision, together with Israel, to attack Iran, a decision that the president appeared to take without consulting or even informing leaders of other NATO nations. The dangers are acute and the long-term ramifications are still to be determined. But this latest of several moments of high drama have strengthened a realisation in Europe that the old relationships are over. Nowhere is that more acutely felt than in Germany, which throughout the post-war period has regarded the U.S as its security guarantor.
Short-term, a number of things are working against the German leader. Firstly, his party’s polling ratings remain extremely low. The first poll of 2026 showed the far-right AfD extending its overall lead to 27% of the vote, while Merz’s CDU came in at 24%. Merz’s personal popularity remains very low too, with only 23% satisfied with him, and even among CDU supporters, only just over half approve of their own leader.
It should also be noted that standing up to the U.S president, not to mention Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, does not necessarily wins votes at home. UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron are finding this out to their cost.
Merz faces headwinds. Economic growth is forecast at around 1% in 2026, which is better than the 0.2% of 2025 but still a far cry from Germany’s past performance. Consumer spending remains stubbornly low, and insolvencies are at their highest in a decade.
In a letter to his party at the beginning of the year, the chancellor wrote that the economy was in a “very critical state.” The government coalition, he said, would “have to concentrate on making the right political and legal decisions to drastically improve the economic conditions,” and that labour costs, energy costs, bureaucratic hurdles and tax burdens are all too high. “We will need to work on this together,” he concluded. But his coalition is struggling to do so, turning the “Autumn of Reforms” into a damp squib.
Many of the changes that Merz would like to introduce – his latest fixations are part-time work and Germans’ propensity to call in sick – are fiercely opposed by his coalition partners, the SPD, which continue to cling to the welfarist view of the past.
Germany’s problems go even deeper. Its over-reliance on Russian gas has proven rather expensive to move away from. Trump’s tariffs compromised Germany’s export-driven model. And now China is overtaking Germany in several sectors it once provided a willing market for, notably cars.
One thing working in the chancellor’s favour is that compared to the far more embattled Starmer and Macron, he at least has money to spend.
But there are complications there too. Statistics for 2025 show the federal government has been struggling to implement its plans to inject half-a-trillion euros into infrastructure over the long term, and there is considerable concern over how this money will be spent. The Council of Economic Experts, which provides independent advice to ministers, has warned that the government is at risk of “squandering” its investment, as it has been using too much of the new funds to pay for pensions and social spending.
The September elections in Saxony Anhalt will be an important test. The AfD is currently at around 39%, with the CDU trailing at 26%, followed by the Left Party at 11%, and the SPD hitting rock bottom at 8%.
There is still a long way to go but if the eventual results reflect current predictions, one of two options will come to pass: either the CDU will be forced to cobble together an unwieldy coalition with parties it has almost nothing in common with, or the AfD will secure an outright majority, and in so doing, control its first regional parliament and get a seat in the Bundesrat upper house. This would, in turn, rekindle the fraught debate over the “firewall” – i.e. the main parties’ refusal to include the AfD from government at any level.
If the economy starts recovering by then, and if populism in Europe starts to run out of steam as it might be the case with the MAGA movement in the U.S, there is a chance – although a distant one – that what helped Carney could help Merz too. A major unknown yet is whether he will have the courage to follow this through with the same determination.
John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His new book, “Braver New World,” will be published in April.